Call it karma, as critics do, but Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu launched a war meant to bring down Iran’s government, and in the last two weeks voters in both countries have taken away the political room they had to keep fighting it.

“The Iran war caused Republicans to lose Midterm after Democrats took both chambers of Congress, Vice President JD Vance said.

An ABC News Voter Poll found 34 per cent of voters called the war “crucial” to their vote.

In Israel, the picture was uncertain as final results gave Netanyahu’s bloc 53 seats, Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc 48 and the Arab-led parties 19.

Neither main bloc reached the 61 seats needed, and the results were formally presented to President Isaac Herzog on Wednesday.

A war with a moving goal

The war began in late February, with a first ceasefire in April, followed by on-and-off talks. What it was for kept changing.

“It was not a so-called regime change war, but the regime sure did change,” US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said on March 2.

Reports also noted that Trump openly endorsed regime change from the moment he announced the operation; later, he repeatedly insisted he had secured regime change.

Then, at the G7 on June 16, the US President said he “never cared about regime change,” while arguing the killing of senior Iranian officials amounted to it anyway.

Netanyahu never softened the goal, saying, “finishing the job means toppling the terrorist regime in Iran.”

Critics say that goal has gone unmet, and London King’s College Ahron Bregman argues he started a war aimed at toppling the regime, which is still in place.

In September, Trump said the war would end immediately after the midterms. What he promised and what is happening on the ground differ.

The new Democratic majorities could slow or attach conditions to war funding, and Congress is expected to question defence spending.

Netanyahu’s problem is arithmetic, as Herzog said 67 lawmakers recommended Eisenkot and 46 recommended Netanyahu.

The Israeli president said mutual vetoes within and between the blocs leave the question open.

“I will decide on Sunday after personal talks with some of the party leaders,” Herzog added.

Eisenkot has made the Iran war the line of attack, saying Netanyahu is unfit to lead another Iran operation.

He backs destroying Iran’s nuclear and missile programs but rejects regime change as a war aim.

A leader without a majority has little room to take risks, especially when the attack is on how he has run the war.

The pressure from Washington is to end the war, and the pressure from Tel Aviv is to fight it better.

The karma reading is not the only one as an ABC poll found voters are more focused on other factors, including the cost of living, than on the war.

In Israel, Likud is still the largest single party, with 27 seats, and supporters of the war say the strikes removed Iran’s top leadership.

Even in Tehran, analysts say Netanyahu’s departure would be unlikely to change Israel’s approach to Iran.